Ouch!

I saw a report last night that Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK/NASDAQ) was getting slammed in after hours trading. The AP wire had it going for $17 and change. The reason is because the company revised downward its forecasts for the 4th quarter of this year and all of next year.

Needless to say (but I'll say it anyway), it will be interesting to see how this shakes out in the coming days. And, since I buy everything with a 3-5 year time horizon, in the coming months and even longer.

Maybe I'm wrong about Deckers. Time will tell. Though I'd rather a bad pick turn out to be dead money and not a blow up.

Comments

[Earvin Johnson]

Good luck long term on your DECK investment. I hope the shorts are wrong!!!! Shorts are like the people at the craps table who bet the don't pass line, but that's what makes markets isn't it?

Hopefully all the investment on new products DECK is doing in Q1/2 next year pays off. Didn't this company announce it was for sale a while back, or am I mistaken?

[jr]

Tough call on Deck. Your first post mentioned UGG was trying to increase sales from men's lines. UGG actually started out primarily as a niche men's product for years and was never able to grow the biz substantially until recently. Going from that to selling pink UGGs to Hollywood is tough to replicate, even looking out three years. Simple is also in a very tough and competitive category with, so far, mediocre differentiation...and they've been trying for a few years. There's always a bevy of retailers and apparel cos. selling at low multiples with sound balance sheets. I'd rather avoid ones that will have a very tough time attempting to replicate past success (as that is how investors will be looking at it).

jr

[John]

I don't know if Deckers is looking to get bought or not. Though if a company is truly undervalued, it could always wind up being "in play".

Thanks for wishing me luck! I may need it! In the meantime, here's hoping I was just early on the company and didn't nail the bottom.